Phuket rental seasonality: what high season really pays
Phuket runs two economies inside one calendar year: the one that fills every apartment on the west coast, and the one that empties half of them. Nearly every disappointment I see in rental income comes from a buyer who priced the first season and quietly assumed the second away. Here is how the year actually falls.
When high season falls, and when it does not
High season on Phuket runs roughly from November to April. The dense part of it is December through February, when the weather is dry, the sea is calm on the west coast, and the island is full of people who booked months ahead. November and March are strong but softer, and April tapers off as the heat builds. From May to October the island is in green season: warmer water, heavy afternoon rain, a quieter west coast, and a rental market that looks nothing like the winter one.
Green season is not the washout it is often described as. The rain usually arrives in concentrated bursts rather than all day, and the island keeps working through it. But the demand profile changes completely. Short holiday bookings thin out, the guests who do come are more price-sensitive, and the owners who were turning units over every five nights in January start looking for someone who will take the place for three months.
The shoulder months nobody prices
Between the two there are weeks that behave like neither. Chinese New Year lifts late January or February above the surrounding rate. Songkran in mid-April puts a short spike into a month that is otherwise cooling off. Late October and early November are a genuine grey zone: the rain is easing, the bookings have not arrived, and a unit can sit empty next to a building that is already full. When I model a year for a client, those weeks go in as themselves, not as an average.
Why you cannot multiply the high-season rate by twelve
This is the single most common error I correct. Someone is shown a nightly rate from a January booking, multiplies it by thirty and then by twelve, and arrives at a number that has no relationship to what will land in their account. The rate they were shown is the best rate of the best month of the year, gross, before anyone takes a share of it.
- It assumes every night is booked. Realistic year-round occupancy on Phuket sits at 60-70%, and even that takes a competent manager.
- It assumes the winter rate holds all year. It does not. Green season pricing is a different bracket, and it is where most of the calendar sits.
- It ignores the management share. A management company takes 20-30% of revenue. If you are being quoted 10-15% as the market norm, something else is being charged elsewhere.
- It ignores the cost of standing still. Common area charges of around 80 baht per square metre a month, utilities, replacements and the annual deep clean run whether the unit is let or empty.
- It ignores the gaps between guests. Cleaning days, blocked owner stays and short unsellable windows all come out of the same calendar.
Where 60-70% occupancy actually comes from
That figure is not a flat 65% spread evenly through the year. It is a very full winter averaged against a thin summer. In practice the high-season months on a well-run unit in a strong district run close to full, and the green season months run well below half unless something is done about them. Add the two together and you land in the 60-70% band that I use in every calculation I give a client.
Occupancy is also not a property of the building. It is a property of the operator. The same unit in the same block will produce different numbers depending on who is listing it, how the pricing is adjusted week by week, how fast enquiries are answered and whether the photographs are honest. Which is why I treat the choice of manager as part of the purchase decision rather than something you sort out afterwards. How that side works is in property management and rentals in Phuket.
How the low season gets covered
The green season is not filled with tourists, because there are not enough of them. It is filled with time. The units that hold their annual numbers are the ones that switch format for half the year and take longer stays at a monthly rate instead of chasing nightly bookings that are not there.
- Monthly and multi-month lets. A guest taking May to September at a lower monthly rate produces more than a half-empty nightly calendar at a higher one.
- Long-stay residents. Remote workers, families on a longer visa, people trialling the island before buying. This demand barely notices the rain.
- Repeat guests booked off-season. Regulars who come back every year and get a quieter island for less.
- Owner use and maintenance. The sensible window for your own stays, for replacing worn furniture and for any refurbishment, rather than blocking out February.
The trade you are making
A long green-season let earns less per night than a high-season booking, and that is the point. You are trading peak rate for certainty across five months, which is usually the better trade. It is the same demand pool that supplies the island's residential market, and it behaves quite differently from tourism. I wrote about that side of it in renting in Phuket long term.
What seasonality does to the net yield calculation
Once the calendar is built honestly, the arithmetic is straightforward. Revenue is the winter at its real rate plus the summer at its real rate, across 60-70% of the nights. Out of that comes the management share at 20-30%, the common area charges, utilities, consumables, replacements, insurance and tax. What is left is the net, and in my practice a realistic net on Phuket sits in the 6-8% band. In Bang Tao and Laguna specifically I see 4-6% net against 7-9% gross, and the gap between those two numbers is exactly the material in this article.
Seasonality also decides which districts suit which goal. The west coast beach areas have the sharpest peak and the deepest trough, because their demand is almost purely holiday demand. Districts with a resident population underneath the tourism flatten out: lower in January, steadier in July. Neither is better in the abstract. They are different instruments, and the choice follows what you want the money to do. The district-by-district picture is in the best areas in Phuket to buy property, and the full net-return method is in calculating Phuket rental yield.
- Rentals on the island — if you would rather live here first and look around
- Yield calculator — run your own numbers in a minute
Legal, visa and tax work is not mine — it belongs to partners I use constantly
I am an investment strategist: I select the property, calculate the net return, check the developer and run the transaction. Anything that needs a legal, immigration or tax qualification goes to specialists I have worked with for years.
- Thai lawyers — document and contract review, land title, registration at the Land Office, wills, powers of attorney, corporate questions
- Visa partners — choosing and filing the right route for your situation: investment-based, LTR, Thailand Privilege, retirement, DTV
- Tax specialists — reporting in your country of tax residence, treaty credit for Thai tax, declarations on foreign assets
- Company formation in Thailand — when a structure is genuinely needed and lawful
- Rental management and concierge — letting the property, transfers, yachts, events
I introduce partners personally, matched to your actual question, so that you speak to the specialist who handles it rather than to a general inbox. Message me and I will make the introduction.
Frequently asked
When is high season in Phuket?
What occupancy should I expect on a Phuket rental?
Can I rent my Phuket apartment out all year round?
Lyubov Fortunova
Investment strategist and founder of Fortunova Capital Group. I have lived on Phuket for more than five years and run every deal myself: I select the property, calculate the net return, check the developer and hold the process together until the keys are handed over. Lawyers, visa and tax specialists come from my own circle.
“I count net, not dreams”
Send me the project and the unit you are considering and I will build the month-by-month calendar for it, with the low season priced in and the net written at the bottom.
I answer personally, within the working day, in any time zone. No calls unless you want them. A question about the article is free and commits you to nothing.
